Thailand’s Exports to the USA: What’s at Stake Amid Trump’s Tariff Regime?
Published: April 4, 2025 | By Thaibahts
Thailand’s trade relationship with the United States has long been a cornerstone of its export-driven economy. As Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, Thailand relies heavily on international markets, with the USA standing out as its top export destination. However, the re-emergence of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies in 2025—dubbed “Trump 2.0″—has thrust this partnership into uncertainty. With sweeping new tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, including a hefty 36% reciprocal tariff on Thai goods, questions abound: What does Thailand export to the USA? What were the tariffs like before Trump’s interventions, and what are they now? Most critically, how will these changes impact Thai exporters and the broader economy?
In this in-depth analysis, we’ll explore Thailand’s key exports to the USA, trace the evolution of tariffs from pre-Trump levels to today’s trade war landscape, and assess the ripple effects of these policies. Drawing on trade data, expert opinions, and historical context, this piece offers a comprehensive look at the stakes—and a candid opinion on whether Thailand can weather this storm.
Thailand’s Exports to the USA: A Snapshot
Thailand’s export economy thrives on diversity, with the USA absorbing a significant share of its goods. In 2024, the US accounted for 18.3% of Thailand’s total exports, valued at approximately $54.96 billion, according to Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce. This made the USA Thailand’s largest single export market, outpacing China (13%) and the European Union. So, what exactly does Thailand send across the Pacific?
- Electronics and Machinery
- Key Products: Hard disk drives, integrated circuits, computer parts, and electrical machinery.
- Value: Electronics and machinery constitute over 40% of Thailand’s exports to the USA, with hard disk drives alone contributing billions annually. Thailand is a global hub for electronics manufacturing, hosting firms like Western Digital and Seagate.
- Why It Matters: The USA’s tech-driven economy relies on these components for everything from consumer gadgets to industrial systems.
- Automotive Products
- Vehicles, auto parts, and tires.
- In 2024, Thailand exported around 42,000 vehicles to the USA, alongside $2–3 billion in auto parts, per the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
- Thailand’s role as an ASEAN auto manufacturing hub makes it a key supplier for American automakers and aftermarket needs.
- Agricultural Goods
- Rice, rubber, processed seafood (e.g., canned tuna), and poultry.
- Agricultural exports to the USA topped $5 billion in 2024, with rubber and seafood leading the pack.
- Thailand’s rice (e.g., Jasmine) and seafood are staples in American markets, bolstered by demand for quality and affordability.
- Textiles and Garments
- Clothing, footwear, and fabrics.
- Roughly $1.5 billion annually, though less dominant than electronics or autos.
- Thai textiles cater to mid-tier US retailers, competing with lower-cost producers like Vietnam.
- Other Notable Exports
- Jewelry and Gems: Over $1 billion, leveraging Thailand’s reputation as a gem-cutting hub.
- Chemicals and Plastics: Including rubber-based products, worth $2 billion-plus.
- Solar Panels: A growing sector as Chinese firms relocate production to Thailand to dodge US tariffs.
Thailand’s trade surplus with the USA—$45.6 billion in 2024, per US estimates—underscores its export strength. This surplus, however, has made it a target for Trump’s tariff hammer, as he seeks to “level the playing field” for American industries.
Tariffs Before Trump: A Relatively Open Door
Before Trump’s first term (pre-2017), US-Thailand trade operated under a relatively stable framework. The USA applied tariffs based on its Most Favored Nation (MFN) rates under the World Trade Organization (WTO), as Thailand and the US lack a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). Here’s how it looked:
- Average MFN Tariff (Pre-2017):
- The US average applied tariff on all imports was around 2.5% in 2016, per the Tax Foundation. For Thailand specifically:
- Electronics: 0–2% (many components qualified for duty-free entry under WTO’s Information Technology Agreement).
- Agricultural Goods: 2–5% on average, though rice faced minimal duties (e.g., 0.5 cents/kg), while processed seafood saw 5–7%.
- Autos and Parts: 2.5% on vehicles, 0–3% on parts.
- Textiles: Higher at 8–12%, reflecting protection for US apparel industries.
- Thailand’s Tariffs on US Goods:
- Thailand’s MFN applied tariff averaged 11.5% in 2016 (WTO data), with peaks at:
- Agriculture: 31.2% (e.g., pork, corn).
- Industrial Goods: 8.4% (e.g., machinery, autos).
- This disparity—Thailand taxing US goods more heavily—later fueled Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” rhetoric.
- Key Context:
- The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) allowed duty-free entry for some Thai goods (e.g., jewelry, certain electronics) until Trump partially revoked it in 2019, citing Thailand’s failure to open markets to US pork. Pre-2017, GSP covered $1.3 billion of Thai exports annually.
This era was marked by minimal trade friction. Tariffs were low, predictable, and WTO-compliant, fostering a robust $30–40 billion annual trade flow from Thailand to the USA. Thai exporters enjoyed competitive access, while US consumers benefited from affordable imports.
Trump Tariffs: From 2017 to Today
Trump’s first term (2017–2021) introduced a seismic shift, escalating tariffs under Section 301 (unfair trade practices) and Section 232 (national security). His second term, starting January 2025, doubles down with a broader, more aggressive approach. Let’s break it down:
Trump 1.0 (2017–2021)
- GSP Suspension (2019):
- Impacted $1.3 billion in Thai exports (e.g., chemicals, auto parts), raising duties to MFN levels (2–12%).
- Reason: Thailand’s refusal to import US pork with ractopamine, a feed additive banned in the EU and China but allowed in the US.
- Section 301 Tariffs:
- While primarily aimed at China, Thailand felt indirect pressure as Chinese firms shifted production to Southeast Asia, including Thailand, to bypass US tariffs. Solar panels exported from Thailand faced scrutiny as “Chinese-origin” goods.
- Average Tariff Increase:
- By 2020, the US average tariff on Thai goods rose modestly to ~3–4%, per the Tax Foundation, factoring in GSP losses and selective duties.
Trump 2.0 (2025 Onward)
On April 2, 2025, Trump unveiled his latest tariff regime, effective April 5 (baseline) and April 9 (reciprocal rates). Thailand faces:
- Baseline Tariff: 10% on all imports to the USA, applied universally except Canada and Mexico (USMCA exemptions).
- Reciprocal Tariff: An additional 26%, totaling 36% on Thai goods.
- Calculation: Trump’s team claims Thailand imposes a “72% tariff barrier” on US goods, based on a formula dividing the US trade deficit with Thailand ($45.6 billion) by Thai exports to the US ($54.96 billion), then halving it (67% ÷ 2 ≈ 36%). Critics argue this oversimplifies trade dynamics, ignoring Thailand’s actual 11.5% MFN rate.
- Sector-Specific Impact:
- Electronics: From 0–2% to 36%, though semiconductors may be exempt (pending clarification).
- Autos: From 2.5% to 36%, a massive jump for Thailand’s 42,000-unit exports.
- Agriculture: From 2–7% to 36%, hitting rice, rubber, and seafood hard.
- Textiles: From 8–12% to 36%, further eroding competitiveness.
This leap from ~3% (2024 average) to 36% is unprecedented, dwarfing pre-Trump levels and even Trump 1.0 increases. It’s a radical departure from WTO norms, reflecting Trump’s “America First” ethos.
How Thai Exports Get Impacted: A Deep Dive
The 36% tariff threatens Thailand’s export economy on multiple fronts. Here’s a detailed assessment:
- Direct Cost Increase
- Electronics: A hard disk drive costing $50 pre-tariff now incurs $18 in duties (36%), raising the landed cost to $68. US importers may pass this to consumers or seek cheaper alternatives (e.g., Vietnam, Malaysia).
- Autos: A $20,000 Thai-made vehicle jumps to $27,200, pricing it out of mid-tier US markets.
- Agriculture: Jasmine rice, previously $1/kg with minimal duty, now costs $1.36/kg, challenging its edge over US-grown rice.
- Loss of Competitiveness
- Thailand’s 9% GDP exposure to US imports (ING estimates) risks a 3% GDP hit if demand elasticities hold. Competitors like Vietnam (46% tariff) and Malaysia (24%) face steeper duties, but their lower pre-tariff costs could still undercut Thailand.
- Opinion: Thailand’s reliance on US firms (e.g., Western Digital) for electronics exports might cushion some blow—relocation isn’t instant—but autos and agriculture lack such buffers.
- Trade Diversion
- Thai exporters may pivot to Europe, the Middle East, or Africa, as urged by the Thai government. However, these markets can’t absorb $54 billion overnight. China, facing 54% US tariffs, will flood ASEAN with cheap goods, intensifying regional competition.
- Example: Rubber exports to the US ($1.5 billion) could shift to India, but India’s domestic production limits uptake.
- Economic Fallout
- Export Losses: Commerce official Vuttikrai Leewiraphan estimates $7–8 billion in losses if tariffs rise 11%. At 36%, losses could hit $15–20 billion, per ING’s 3% GDP risk projection.
- Jobs: The FTI warns of layoffs in auto (42,000 workers) and electronics sectors. Rural farmers (rice, rubber) face income drops.
- Baht Volatility: The Thai baht fell to a one-month low post-announcement (April 3, 2025), per Reuters, reflecting market jitters.
- Opportunities Amid Peril
- Relocation Gains: If Trump hikes China tariffs further (to 60%), more firms may shift to Thailand, as seen with solar panels in Trump 1.0.
- Negotiation Leverage: Thailand’s $17 billion investment in the US (e.g., food, auto parts) and 11,000 US jobs give it bargaining chips, per the Foreign Ministry.
Opinion: These tariffs are a blunt instrument—Trump’s “liberation day” for US manufacturing could be Thailand’s economic nightmare. The 36% rate feels punitive, not reciprocal, given Thailand’s actual 11.5% tariff average. Yet, Thailand’s resilience and strategic pivots could mitigate long-term damage.
Strategies for Thailand: Navigating the Trade War
Thailand isn’t sitting idle. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan have outlined responses:
- Negotiation: A “holistic approach” to reduce the trade surplus to $20 billion by importing US goods (e.g., corn, soybeans, beef).
- Market Diversification: Pushing exporters to explore non-US markets.
- Tax Adjustments: Lowering tariffs on US imports to appease Trump.
- Investment: Leveraging Thai firms’ US presence for concessions.
Opinion: Negotiation is smart—Thailand’s small 2% share of US imports (vs. China’s 17%) makes it a lower-priority target. But diversification takes years, not months, and absorbing $8–20 billion in losses demands fiscal stimulus beyond current plans.
Conclusion: A Balancing Act for Thailand
Thailand’s exports to the USA—electronics, autos, agriculture—face a tectonic shift with Trump’s 36% tariffs. From pre-Trump lows of 0–12% to today’s trade war heights, the cost to Thai exporters is steep: $15–20 billion in potential losses, eroded competitiveness, and economic strain. Yet, opportunities lurk—relocation gains, negotiation wins—if Thailand plays its cards right.
For now, the impact hinges on Trump’s next moves (exemptions? escalation?) and Thailand’s agility. As an observer, I see resilience in Thailand’s export DNA, but this tariff tsunami tests its limits. What’s your take—can Thailand outmaneuver Trump’s trade war? Share below.